The top military leadership plans to use the reserve, located near Belgorod, to replace the dead Russian soldiers, to whom most mothers will never be able to say goodbye. The Ukrainian army, to the surprise of Putin and his loyal generals, turned out to be more prepared and motivated. Which shouldn't be surprising in any way.
Ukrainians selflessly defend their native land, their relatives and friends, their nationality, their freedom and their right to life. Of course, Putin is left with the option of conducting a general mobilization in order to flood the front with soldiers, as has happened many times in Russian history. Such an army will naturally have weak morale and a lack of professionalism.
Putin has chosen to use the victorious war with Ukraine as a foundational element of his 2024 election campaign. After all, no one had any doubts that he would voluntarily leave the presidency. However, general mobilization certainly does not guarantee him a new presidential term.
Few couches and studio patriots want to take up arms and go to war against a neighbouring state. It is not a fact that the Russian army will have enough of this very weapon for a long war with Ukraine. This development forces us to ask the question: “What does Putin plan to do next?”.
There was a plan A - a blitzkrieg, but it could not be implemented, what will be the plan B? Take Mariupol under full control, continue the occupation of Kherson, seize the entire south, and increase the borders of ORDLO to the borders of the regions? So, what is next? Lose soldiers every day in a long guerrilla war? Have a hostile country on the border, which is semi-legally armed and re-equipped by NATO? Is this a victory?
It is obvious that Putin does not have any plan B. He blindly believes in his own propaganda, about the military superiority of Russia over other countries and that every Ukrainian waits for a Russian soldier to come and save him from cruel neo-Nazis and drug addicts. However, the reality is making its own adjustments, Putin has been sending Ukrainian cities deadly "gifts" in the form of bombs and missiles for the third month already.
Ukraine has already paid too high a price for the right to exist. Thousands of civilians died, and millions became internally displaced persons and refugees. Putin is gradually erasing Ukraine from the face of the earth, using Kadyrov's Chechen fighters to clean up cities and villages, but so far he has not been able to break the spirit of the Ukrainian people.
He really needs a symbolic victory, the end of the war for him without a victory in it is unacceptable. Is Putin ready to use nuclear weapons, and is he ready to attack Ukrainian cities or NATO countries in return for military assistance to Kyiv with missiles with nuclear warheads?
The use of nuclear weapons is a guaranteed suicide for Putin. Whether he is ready to unleash a full-scale nuclear war depends on the answer to the question: "Is he ready to part with his life?". Most likely not ready, like all world dictators. Too expensive for each of them their own luxurious life.
Putin definitely appreciates his life. He was very afraid of contracting the coronavirus, walked in a spacesuit, and hid behind the walls of the bunker for almost two years, he publicly speaks at a considerable distance from the press and interlocutors. A person who values his health so much will most likely not want to turn into radioactive ashes.
Putin has not yet been able to calm the fighting spirit of the Ukrainian defenders. Naturally, he is tempted from time to time to solve the problem once and for all with one decisive and devastating blow. The only thing that slows down his desire to use nuclear weapons is the potential reaction of the West.
Putin does not care about civilian casualties on both sides, he also does not care about a possible humanitarian catastrophe. He only cares about himself. He will not risk launching nuclear strikes on Ukraine and NATO countries if there is a high probability of retaliation from the West, which he certainly cannot survive.
Putin is testing the West for the limits of the possible. The application of sanctions and the seizure of assets of the Central Bank was quite expected, and the provision of humanitarian assistance and the supply of modern weapons to Kyiv were also expected. But the UK and the US continue to ignore their commitments to Ukraine under the Budapest Memorandum.
Putin realized that he was able to grope for the very line beyond which the West is not going to cross in the near future. This line is expressed in a direct military clash between Russia and NATO members. Putin is sure that he is fighting with America and NATO countries, and it becomes clear that he will definitely not limit himself to the capture of Ukraine.
It is urgent to establish a no-fly zone regime in the sky over Ukraine. A reliably closed sky will not allow Russian aerospace forces to inflict deadly strikes on Ukrainian villages and cities. The introduction of a no-fly zone in the skies over Ukraine will prevent thousands of civilian deaths and give Ukraine a chance to prevail in this unequal confrontation.